[Update: Here's the video, and note the McNamee has a new, shorter and classier haircut. Officially redeemed!]
[Update 2: More smacktalk! "Our product is just going to run rings around them on the web. If you want to go the web, it's going to be a million time faster, well, not a million times, several times faster and that's a huge deal for most people."]
Before we go too far, we need to stipulate that Roger McNamee is still our hero. He's out there, exposing himself to the Swishers and Lacys of the world (no, not like that), hobnobbing at the TED Conference, and generally doing his best to get everybody on board with the Pre. We love him to death. Now, have you ever heard somebody say "I love him to death" without a "but" at the end? Here it is:
Bloomberg [via our friends at TiPb, who are just beside themselves with snarky glee over all this] reports that yesterday McNamee dropped this little bomb during an interview:
You know the beautiful thing: June 29, 2009, is the two- year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone, [...] Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later.
Uh, Roger, maybe you don't want to raise expectations that high, okay? We know that Palm very much needs the Pre to be a smash hit in order to stay alive, but here's the deal: you want people to think that it is more successful than they anticipated, not less. Suggesting that every iPhone user who bought on day one are going to switch to the Pre is therefore not wise.
Ok, we kid, there's a little more context to the quote -- McNamee was apparently focusing mainly on the early adopted, gotta-have-the-best-and-latest-stuff contingent of day 1 iPhone buyers:
Think about it -- If you bought the first iPhone, you bought it because you wanted the coolest product on the market [...] Your two-year contract has just expired. Look around. Tell me what they’re going to buy.
Fair enough and a good point, the Pre is definitely going to be the newest and hottest thing around when it finally gets released, but buddy, pal, compadre, hero -- could you please Elevate them expectation guns a little lower?
Comments
As for the "If you bought the first iPhone, you bought it because you wanted the coolest product on the market [...] Your two-year contract has just expired. Look around."
Shhhheeayeeeeaaaahhhh.......um...this should read something like:
If you bought the first iPhone, you bought it because you wanted the coolest product on the market..signed a two year contract to end in 2009...and then subsequently bought the iPhone 3G a year later, thus extending your two year contract to 2010...making Roger's point moot.
Am I wrong?
A lot of people kept their 1st gen iphones cause the monthly plans for it are cheaper.
No...my point is regarding HIS point:
This is his point:
1. People that bought the original first gen iPhone bought it because they wanted the latest "coolest" gadget out at the time (let's call these people gadgetphiles).
2. Since the first iPhone was released June 2007, in June 2009, all their 2-year contracts are going to expire.
3. Because they are expiring, these gadgetphiles are going to want the newest coolest device out there (which Roger thinks is the Pre).
4. Therefore, they will jump ship to Sprint to get the new cool device, the Pre, leaving the iPhone in the dust.
My point is that:
1. These gadgetphiles in June 2008 (with one year to go in their contracts), going along with Rogers thinking, had the option of upgrading to the iPhone 3G at a subsidized price if they signed a NEW two year contract.
2. The iPhone 3G is the new coolest gadget.
3. Therefore, the gadgetphiles would obviously want this, and upgrade since they are eligible. Now their contract expires in 2010.
4. Because their contract expires in 2010...his point that these gadgetphiles' contract are expiring in 2009 is not valid.
I am NOT talking about people that didn't upgrade because of the pricing. These people are not who Roger targetted in his comment; he was targeting those that must have the latest new device...free of contract restrictions. It's a lame point he was making...in my opinion.
Also, "You know the beautiful thing: June 29, 2009, is the two- year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone, [...] Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later."
Did he just confirm that the Palm Pre is coming out July 2009?
He is only confirming that the Pre will be available in July. It will be out earlier.
I think his faster web comment was more about Sprint's 3G network as compared with At&t's network.
I thought he did a great job at being all around complimentary, yet pushing that the Pre will be the ultimate "coolest" device on the planet. Leading the pack so to speak for the first time in a long time.
He also made it clear why Sprint was chosen. The launch of the Pre on Sprint's 3G network; Sprint's 3G network being the most stable, equals less dropped signals and connection problems. So they feel they won't have the problems AT&T and the iPhone have experienced on their launch.
I think this is going to boost Palm and Sprint. Christmas in June. Sounds good to me!
I didn't think the talk was all that smacky. Heh.
If anything, he was almost too complimentary of other carriers and companies.
I guess that smack-talk was from a different interview, eh? (I skimmed the write-up.)
I think alot of the early adapters where apple fanboy's and will just get the iphone 3G.
I love Roger, and I love his new haircut, and I love his superhero gadget belt. No buts. :-) He just entertains me to no end.
I'm very surprised by the haircut, but it was certainly a move in the right direction. He could, maybe, stand to move a lil further down that road, but this seems like a fairly decent balance between eccentricity and respectability.
I thought the long hair was from a resolution to not cut his hair till the last U.S. administration was out of power? Or something like that. So the timing of his new cut is not coincidental.
Exactly, and he also donated the hair to charity for kids with cancer or something like that.
Anyway, as for the 'smack-talk'... I don't think he's even necessarily saying that the iPhone users will switch to the Pre, just that when their contracts are up, they're going to be buying something new, whether its a new iPhone, a Pre, a Blackberry, whatever.
And as for his comment about web speed, the Pre does have a faster processor than that of the iPhone, so that's really just stating facts. If he had continued with a million times better like he originally started out saying, that'd have been an exaggeration, but he corrected himself, and I think what he said is perfectly fine.
Yeah if you watch the video he actually is complimentary towards RIM,Apple,ATT etc etc.
He seems like a good guy; obviously he has a big stake in Palm but I also think he legitimately enjoys being a tech nerd. see: his phone belt
"you know the beautiful thing: June 29, 2009, is the two- year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone, [...] Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later."
this is an idiotic statement. It isn't meant for us who know better, it is meant as spin for the capital markets.
Does this he think he is selling Razrs or a dumphone that take one minute to learn how to use and exploit capablilities? iPhone and Pre are not a dumphones. People gain increasing, not decreasing, affinity of interfaces and operating systems because they become familiar and learn to exploit them more and more. That has a stickiness and persistence and is part of brand loyalty. It is like saying they learned French for two years and now are ready to learn Korean because it is cool.
Roger..those buyers of iphone shave now invested probably hundreds of dollars in iTunes DRM they play on their iPhones...how does Pre do with itunes DRM libraries? We know the answer.
I am positive on Pre, it is a game changer for Palm and exciting and compelling. But some of the spin is laughably idiotic.
As I said above, I think this is being misinterpreted. To me it sounds like he's saying "after their contracts are up, not one of those original iPhone users will still be using the original iPhone" since you'd assume that people who bought the original iPhone in the first month would tend to be on the more cutting edge side of things.
As for iTunes DRM, well sure, that's an issue, but not as much now that you can get DRM-free music from iTunes. And while iTunes sales are increasing more and more as time goes on, I'd be willing to bet that somewhere around 75% of the music on people's iPhones was obtained through other methods.
And for the record, I know a ton of people who have learned one language for a couple years and then moved on to something new when they get bored of it, and to bring it back to phones, that's the only reason that I switched from my 755p to a WM device, I was bored of it.
jhoff,
on language, I know six, but the point its it is rare. when it comes to technology of increasingly feature laden interfaces there is an inertia there that is efficient. you may switch because you are board but that is very much outlier behavior.
On the DRM, even if 75% of peoples music is non itunes drm, and I don't think I agree with that, it is still is a huge factor.
Beck to the timing. This is something floated before macnamee and it doesn't make sense on several levels. most of the people I know who got iphone in that first month did not get new two year contracts with att.
As I siad I am positive on Pre, but Macnamees spiel was actually very shallow and not very sensible.
"Palm’s newer operating system will give it an edge, McNamee said. The underlying technology for Research In Motion Ltd.’s BlackBerry is about 13 years old, while the technology behind the iPhone goes back almost nine years, he said. "
And with WebOS-Linux based, that makes it "underlying technology", depending on whether you count linux as starting in 1991, or more accurately 1983, 25 years old?
So Palm has the "I bought an iPhone on day one but didn't buy an iPhone 3G but are ready to have the coolest phone again on day one + 2 years and will switch from ATT to Sprint" crowd all sewed up!
coolest guy ever
cool yes. Articulate? not very.
On the contrary, he's quite articulate. Mr. Smooth he is not, granted, but it's his enthusiastic nerdiness that makes him so delightful.
Nah. It was quite a bumbling performance.
Geesh, what an embarrasing "ambassador" for Palm (or anyone). Not sure what planet Roger is from, but feel safe that he's roaming everywhere he visits on this third marble from the sun. Misguided doesn't seem to apply, what is three magnitudes greater?
iPhone users are gadgetphiles? No way, most are mid to late adopters. The Gadgetphiles have more capable hardware than Apples lovely toy. iPod was a step up from a terrible mp3 market. iPhone is a nice phone will lesser capabilities but a great interface.
Pre will keep its loyal Treo lovers. It will steal back some departed Treo pilots. It will suck in a few people that are Anti-Apple and anti-AT+T and ready to try a smartphone. But non of the lemmings will take off their Hollister sweatshirts for a superior product with a lesser name. Thats life in the US. iPhone isn't high tech, it's high fashion.
But, as we speak, Sprint is moving their minimum data charge from 15 up to 30/month for their hottest new phones. Better phone and $15 data probably would have saved both Palm and Sprint, but it looks like the slide will continue, certainly for Sprint who is giving up the value-play in the face of last plance finishes in service quality and customer service.
I don't think you have a clue to be honest. The Pre will rip customers from all platforms. The iphone isn't "high fashion" anymore.. That would be the Pre except it has many more features.
That is not serious, is it? The Pre won't be a high fashion or status symbol. It is for the middle market from the get go.
I was sold on the Palm Pre when I saw Roger on the FOX Business Channel a while back. I really want this phone!
thank you. I was also concerned that the on topic, sober and informed comments by Anonymous (Fri, 03/06/2009 would just dangerously hang therewith out a meaningless drive-by followup by amateur trader with 50 shares of Palm.
Read the article at least:
Pre: good
McNammee: confused, bad facts, bad analogies, bad logic, off message.
Well, it seems Mr. McNamee is not the only one that feels the Palm Pre is hot and the iPhone...not as hot. Here is a list of the top 100 hottest gadgets. Guess where the Pre lands on the list.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/scienceandtechnology/technology/4951592/Top-1...
Original article on T3
http://hot100.t3.com/
the article refers to t3's list. do a google archive, they have always gotten it wrong in past five years.
Last year's number three out of 100 was Samsung Instinct.
I like how they showed someone fingering an iPhone during the interview about the Pre. Was someone confused?
How come the RIAA doesn't go after Apple for the iPod? I mean, 100% of iPods probably have some illegal music on them--don't they?
Mine doesn't. In fact, I imagine that the vast majority of them don't - think about how many people own iPods, and then think about how many average people have the slightest clue about how to get music onto it, except from CDs and off the iTunes store.
The RIAA considers ripping CDs and moving the music to a digital music player UNAUTHORIZED.
"RIAA: Ripping CDs to iPod not 'Fair Use'"
http://yro.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=06/02/16/007257
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