Woody tips us off to this Bloomberg article, wherein they polled a half dozen analysts and asked them what they figured the inventory of the Pre at launch would look like. The median answer: 375,000. We'd already heard from an insider that stock might be so thin that Sprint Employees have been told they will need to wait a couple months in order to get one for themselves.
Bloomberg speculates that we could be looking at a sellout situation, suggesting that Palm is intentionally keeping the stockpile low to "enhance its allure." Maybe they're right, but we're thinking Palm is more likely to want to sell as many of these as humanly possible as quickly as possible.
Here's the question, then: how many Palm Pre phones do you think Sprint and Palm will sell in, say, the first month?
Thanks, woody!
Comments
I can guarantee at least one sale :)
I think they will sell ALL the phones in the first month! LOL
If I cant get one soon, I will not switch to Sprint and instead get a different phone on a different carrier. This is already bordering on absurd. I do not see how Sprint would let them have thin stock on purpose.
You know good and well you won't go elsewhere just because you can't get one the first day. Trust me you aren't threatening Sprint by your dramatic conjecture.
You can't make that call for others.
Personally I need a new smartphone before the end of June. If supply is short and the Pre sells out I may very well go with a different carrier. With the HTC Magic and the new iPhone launch likely happening around the same time, having short supply of the Pre could mean lost sales.
I agree with TJ. It'd be a big mistake to start selling the Pre after the Iphone 3.0 comes out.
I love how people keep saying "this is absurd, this is ridiculous, I'm not putting up with this anymore" All Palm has done is say it will be out 1st half, and all signs point to that being true. Any other release date and pricepoint hysteria has been created by us here in these forums and has nothing to do with Palm or Sprint.
I know those of us that check here all day looking for new info feel like we've been waiting forever and we're getting impatient as the real June deadline draws near, but that deadline that they put on themselves is still two months away. If you're tired of all of the release date talk, you can just stop following it, but I think most of us will continue to check in here because it's mildly entertaining AND WE WANT OUR PRE'S.
If you had a company issuing a new product that had won "best in show" at the biggest industry event of the year was being very highly regarded and anticipated, don't you think it would be a good idea to leak a little info every now and then to keep people talking about your product while you were putting the finishing touches on it leading up to your promised release date?
Only 375,000 on the shelves at launch? Online purchase combined with in store will swallow that number in 10 days!
For their first month of sales they need to have 750,000 on hand!
Make sure you're sleeping in front of a company store and not a fully badged franchise (most of them).
I think they would be able to easily sell 500k+ units in the first month...possibly the first week. I am seriously camping out at my sprint store once the release date is confirmed. I will be getting one the first day they are out!
I'm predicting that they will sell zero in April.
OMFG I just SAW the Sprint Now network with the PRE on an AD on YAHOO! just now!
w00t
I would think that any one who sign up to get notification on the palm/sprint websites will buy the phone. I would have to bet that it is a very large number.
I just hope that they let us Premier customers get the phone earlier than the rest of the crowd. I have some many friends wanting an Android phone. I told them that they will want a Pre once I can show them the cool stuff it can do.
The android was cool when it came out. Now I feel there is nothing great about it except that it is an open source platform.
I'd much rather write programs with javascript than JAVA any day.
I concur with Oz. I might be late for work just to get the phone when the stores opens.
Not true, I don't think that "intentionally keeping the stockpile low" is a good strategy. If people can't get hold of the Pre, they'll go for the new iPhone.
I almost crapped my pants thinking that I mised the very second of the release date, but alas it was just an eye teaser ad. Still cool though:p
375k units will sell out in the first week. Palm continues to fork with us, and it will be to their detriment. If June 7 is release date, they've already lost a lot of people to stand in line - people will wait to see what Apple has to say.
I'm not trying to be a smart ass, but I think we already know what apple has to say. There is just as much info on 0S 3.0 as there is about web 0S, and maybe its just me, but in regards to hardware we already know some of the differences i.e. keyboard, larger memory etc. So unless Apple makes some revolutionary hardware change in the realm of cell phones what else is there to say.
Agree, anybody intrigued by the 3.0 already knows what minimal upgrades they're bringing. Adding an extra ringtone will appeal to most iPhone buyers/owners than any one of the pending upgrades.
If Palm is still working out the bugs while nearing a much sought after deadline, perhaps they will not have enough time to properly prepare enough units at launch time to meet the initial demand.
Apple may be good at creating a lot of buzz which will cause massive lines of folks looking for the latest iPhone but I think that if Palm/Sprint caused the same thing to happen (either on purpose or due to lack of product) that they would likely anger a lot of people who may then look elsewhere for a new piece of technology.
The success of the pre is crucial to Palm and Sprint. When the iPhone came on the market, folks believed that it was in a class of its own. I think that the overall public perception of that class now includes other options of which they may lump the Blackberry, iPhone, pre and others.
Hopefully Palm will be able to ride the wave of early-adopters by having the supply to meet the demand.
As a long-time Palm user, I hope that the pre is their next big thing!
Im sure they'll have enough to meet the demand. I think they are purposely leaking this BS to make people feel frantic that they won't have the newest toy from sprint.
I strongly believe Palm and Sprint will set records sales with the Pre. I'm betting at least 750K+ the first month of sales. Of course, that depends on two things though - supply and price (more so, the first than the later).
Analysts estimate about 2.5 million handsets will sell by the end of 2009. If I recall the sold by time right that would mean in the 1st month at least 416,667 units. But because selling new devices is always heavier nearer to release it is more likely they will sell as many as 1 million in the 1st month. Just because there may only be 375,000 at launch doesn't mean we won't see 200,000 more pushed out each week after. Sure it is likely supply will be a bit lower than the demand but what new device doesn't that happen with. Even apple didn't push out enough iphone 2.0s initially. I think things will go smooth enough. Sure some may have to wait as much as a week to get one but the wait is worth it to get the best smartphone to date. Sure there may be a thing here or there initially that iphone and blackberry do better but the webOS platform appears to be rather limitless in comparison to what we have previously seen in devices.
Don't be dumb enough to try and pump stock here with bogus made up claims and fake attribution to "analysts." People here know better.
They won't sell one million in the first month because they are going have less than 300,000. This is because it was soberly reported already that their are non substitutable component shortages that would limit Pre to about 500,000 for ALL of 2009. They may have been able to push this to another 100,000 or so for 2009 but that would be about it.
They can't sell one million in the first month because they will 400,000 is for the first few months.
I think the culture of apple is starting to manifest itself in Palm. Its a known fact Palm hired some of the brains behind the iPod and it seems as though they have brought their old tricks to Palm in hope of recreating the iPhones success.
I'm going to wait for the "2nd batch of Pre-ookies."
I'm not buying one till I read lots of reviews from various sources saying it's the bees knees. Right now all I got is a bunch of people saying "it's very promising." I've been punched in the stomach too many times by promise breakers.
crapberry and isuckphone aint got shit on my homey Pre.
Palm is neither Amazon nor Nintendo, if they think they can follow similar strategy as the Kindle or Wii, then its becoming more and more clear why Palm is in a make-or-break situation.
Neither Palm nor Sprint are in a position to be arrogant, though it looks as though they think so!
If true that they will start taking preorders one month before release, maybe they will do this intelligently. But to increase demand by simulating shortage of supply, particularly if cash-strapped, is just ridiculous.
I need to test it out before I buy - if it can surf regular forums and Onemanga.com without issues, I will buy a Pre on day one. If it can't, well, I'll hold out until my contract expires and see what happens then.
I wonder if it'll be like the iPhone where for the first day or two you can sell it on Ebay for 2 or 3 times the price.
If so, it might be worth getting to the store a few hours early. You might be able to cover not only the cost of your own Pre, but also the cost of the plan for quite a while.
I was told last night from an insider at Sprint that 800,000 are spoken for already, via the notify me when its available tab on Sprints Website. Also those numbers he said could hit millions very very rapidly. He also stated that Premier customers will get the 1 day early first crack.
Sounds right
Sounds 100% fake.
I'm not sure this makes complete sense. Premier customers are already with Sprint, they are less likely to leave if they have to wait one month. New customers are less likely to sign a new contract with them if they have to wait for the phone when a shiny new iPhone and Android device are on the shelves. On the other hand, showing loyalty to your customers may look good on the outside to those disgruntled with their current service. Hmmm... I'm sure it has been tested and analyzed, but Sprint hasn't exactly made the best decisions in the world over the last few years.
sounds about right, at least they realized they can't sell out a large amount like the iPhone
considering how most people are with the BB/iPhone, there will be more than enough pre's on the shelf. it will bomb against the iPhone
I wouldn't be so sure.. I, and a lot of other people on these forums, are switching FROM the iPhone to the Pre.
I love the iPhone, but it's just too limited for me.. even with the changes that will be made in 3.0
which will still leave a lot of pre's on the shelf.
I'm not seeing your logic, but you are definitely entitled to your opinion. :)
This is the final straw for me. I've tried to be patient waiting to switch from my current phone (a Touch Pro, which I'm dying to get rid of because Windows Mobile is so incredibly slow) but if Sprint is going to play games, then I'm off to ATT and an iPhone!
Happy Trails toooooooo you, until we meeeeeeeet again,, quit whining, THEY SAID 1st HALF 2009!!!!!!!!!!
Jump! JUMP! JUMP ALREADY!!! (shove to hip)
I dunno. I was really eager to swap when I had my Mogul but since I got a Touch Pro a couple months ago I have felt less rushed. I see nothing slow about my TP and it's been an excellent phone for me. I'm just ready to get a Pre because I like the idea of Exchange/Gmail/Facebook integration as well as the nice multitouch screen. It keeps the keyboard that I require in a smartphone and it improves on the multitasking that I also require. The only thing that is gonna suck is that I see no mention of tethering ability and I use that on a weekly basis with my TP.
With an iPhone on ATT you lose the keyboard. You lose multitasking. You gain a larger monthly bill and you are also supporting one of the few companies out there who willingly engaged in illegal wiretapping for the NSA. Like hell are they getting any of my money and I'll be damned if they get my money for offering me less than I already have.
Try a better ROM if yours is acting slow. Juicy's and Mightymike's come to mind.
As far as flipping out over the release date, I want to see the Pre in stores as much as anyone but they gave a release window and have not gone past it yet. Give them time unless you would prefer an unpolished device just because you had to have one NOW NOW NOW like a spoiled child.
What's the big friggen deal.
They said it'll be out by the end of June, we're not even there yet.
If they run out before I get one, I'll just have to wait until they re-stock.
Palm is having some issues right now, what sense would it make for them to make 3 million phones if the only end up selling 500,000?
I don't think they'd sell that few, but if they did they would be out of business (or picked up by someone else) at that point.
If the numbers are true, they made a conservative, but reasonable, amount of phones and will see what the demand is to gauge what volume to manufacture.
Personally I'm not an impatient child, if they sell out before I can get it on release day I'll just wait a little longer until they re-stock.
If that was the biggest stressor in my life, I'd be looking to make a change. :)
Well said! In the end its just a phone.
Well, some analysts think this will be the last hurrah for Palm if the phone doesn't do well. In that case, they have nothing to lose if they over produce the phone. My guess is that they figured out how many devices they would need to sell to recover a certain portion of the investment and try to get as close to that number on the shelves as possible. It would be terrible to fall short of the required profits because of inadequate production.
I really wonder if there's a real demand for Pre from the general everyday Joe? In my circle of friends and colleagues, I am the only one that knows about it and telling everyone about it. The reception has been pretty tepid. One of my colleagues who has been a Palm user from the pda days and currently owns a Treo, will be switching to the Iphone when the new models come out in June. I personally don't think that it will sell out in the first day. It seems that only the people in these forums are ones interested in the Pre.
This is surprising to me actually. The iPhone is the worst smartphone out there from a PDA standpoint (not so great from the phone standpoint either). The iPhone is basically an App launcher with minimal integration between the apps. This works for games, media, internet, following stocks, etc. I think that a long time palm user would feel very handcuffed by the iPhone. I have a Touch and am still considering the iPhone as I want the device for medical apps (which are being produced en masse for the phone) but I know I will have to compromise on PDA features if I go over to the dark side that is AT&T.
No big deal to me. Now, if I have to wait over a month to get one I may complain. At least this will give me time to compare the Pre to whatever Apple has up it's sleeve!
Why give a damn what Apple is coming out with? We all know that whatever it is that it won't multitask and it won't have Synergy! Why even consider anything but the Pre if those aspects are absent
"If you buy within the next half-hour, because you know we can't do this all day" - The Sham Wow Guy
I agree with r0n1n. I feel like I'm the only one here that knows about it and I keep telling people but it seems like no one cares. I care...but I can't seem to stress that enough to them.
When the Iphone first came out, it was a big deal because everyone was familiar with the Ipod. Though Apple was new to the cell phone market, the expectation was that it would be a great product given Apple's track record. Palm has pretty much disappeared from the public mindset and Treo phones aren't exactly household names. Palm has a much bigger hurdle to overcome, whereas people were willing wait in line for hours to buy the Iphone...most people are going to have a wait-n-see attitude with the Palm...If they are even aware that the Pre even exists.
"Bloomberg speculates that we could be looking at a sellout situation, suggesting that Palm is intentionally keeping the stockpile low to "enhance its allure."
Notice the word speculate... it basically means, "we here at Bloomberg don't really know the reason why they will have shortages for the first few months so we'll choose the juicies rumor out there..."
Guys, it could be any one of many reasons on why the shortage. USUALLY, the correct answer has to do with manufacturing enough units quickly in time for a major launch. Such explanations like material shortages, not getting a second line up in running in time and others are usually the most logical responses.
Sprint wouldn't put up with putting constraints on the device just so Palm can increase the allure. It needs customers asap. Palm needs customers asap.
Click on the link and read the full article. Its not because of short supply from manufacturing, its to increase demand.
I'm going to start lifting weights now so that I can fight it out with the other nerd boys waiting at the Sprint store. The loss of blood will be worth it. Once I activiate the phone I can call 911, or at least use the Pre GPS will help me find the hospital.
don't worry, most people will be waiting for the iPhone.
I find it funny that most of these types of posts are by Anonymous posters. :)
The thing is, I agree with you.
I think more people will be waiting for the new iPhone, just like people think that iPods are the only digital media players.
It's all a matter of marketing, it's the same reason that Windows prevailed as the majority leader on computers OSs.
Back "in the day" the Atari ST and Amiga computers were leaps and bounds ahead of Windows, but Microsoft has some of the best marketers in the world and prevailed.
Betamax was much better picture / sound quality than VHS, 8 track was a far superior sound than cassette.
Fortunately we have more choices than back in those days, so there's no one device that's going to rule the world.
Most people will wait for the iPhone because they have narrow vision and are not informed. After the Pre comes out and the truly viral marketing starts, that will change for some of those people.
I think this is exactly why Palm is not over producing the phone on initial release.
I'm not going to put down the iPhone, I have one and LOVE it, but there are some things that are really lacking for me. I'm ready to move to Sprint and the Palm Pre, which looks to have everything I love about the iPhone, the things it's lacking and more.
I also think people are REALLY underestimating WebOS. This OS is going to be HUGE for developers, allowing them to just jump right in and start coding.
good thing my sprint store is right next to a hospital :-D
Yeah All my friends never even heard of it. They probably think im lying about getting a new phone since i been talking about it since January.
Does anyone know if we will be able to order this phone online or will we have to go to the store to get one?
You should be able to order it online.
Not going to happen, BB/Apple already has majority of hte market. Pre won't sell out, LOL
We are already see the wonderous Sprint NOW marketing. Once everyone begins to see the Palm Pre advertisements, and all the it offers and all the Sprint data plans offer versus what they have with BB/Verizon and iPhone/AT&T, then they will clearly that Palm Pre/Sprint have way more to offer at a much cheaper rate! There will be no reason for non contract Verizon and AT&T users not to switch to Sprint and the Palm Pre!
Have fun in "wonderous" dreamland.
If that was in the least bit true people wouldn't be leaving Sprint in droves right now.
Only a tiny fraction of those leaving Sprint in the past year, all the while with Sprint already having "Now" and "everything plans" have gone because of iPhone. Verizon took a few million of Sprint's customers the past 12 months with no iPhone.
I don't care if I don't get it the day it is released, but I would like to have it at least the first week or even second.
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